The May 28, 2008 Asia Times story (below) states that Senators Diane
Feinstein (D-CA) and Richard Lugar (R-Indiana) would, "within days," write
an op-ed for the NY Times to express their opposition to a US air strike
on Iran, which "would likely create a groundswell of criticism that could
induce the Bush administration (to) reconsider its plan." But the war
drums continue....

Learn more about the Iran-Iraq situation from award-winning Iraqi
journalist Dahr Jamail, author of "Beyond the Green Zone: Dispatches from
an Unembedded Journalist in Occupied Iraq." He spoke some time ago to a
packed audience at Kane Hall -- and is not to be missed.

Mary Anne

===============

Saturday, June 7, 2008
7-9 PM
Dahr Jamail speaks on
Telling Truth: Iraq and Iran

University Temple United Methodist Church
1415 NE 43rd Street
Seattle, Washington

Co-Sponsors: United Nations Association - Seattle, Network Opposing
War with Iran (NOWI), Interfaith Network Of Concern for the
People of Iraq (INOC), Washington Physicians for Social
Responsibility(WPSR), Church and Society Team of the University Temple
United Methodist Church, Northwest International Health Action
Coalition (NIHAC), Western Washington Fellowship of Reconciliation,
Eastside Friends Meeting, Sound Nonviolent Opponents of War (SNOW)

+++++++++++++++++

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JE28Ak01.html
Bush 'plans Iran air strike by August'
By Muhammad Cohen , May 28, 2008

NEW YORK - The George W Bush administration plans to launch an air strike
against Iran within the next two months, an informed source tells Asia
Times Online, echoing other reports that have surfaced in the media in the
United States recently.

Two key US senators briefed on the attack planned to go public with their
opposition to the move, according to the source, but their projected New
York Times op-ed piece has yet to appear.

The source, a retired US career diplomat and former assistant secretary of
state still active in the foreign affairs community, speaking anonymously,
said last week that that the US plans an air strike against the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The air strike would target the
headquarters of the IRGC's elite Quds force. With an estimated strength of
up to 90,000 fighters, the Quds' stated mission is to spread Iran's
revolution of 1979 throughout the region.

Targets could include IRGC garrisons in southern and southwestern Iran,
near the border with Iraq. US officials have repeatedly claimed Iran is
aiding Iraqi insurgents. In January 2007, US forces raided the Iranian
consulate general in Erbil, Iraq, arresting five staff members, including
two Iranian diplomats it held until November. Last September, the US
Senate approved a resolution by a vote of 76-22 urging President George W
Bush to declare the IRGC a terrorist organization. Following this
non-binding "sense of the senate" resolution, the White House declared
sanctions against the Quds Force as a terrorist group in October. The Bush
administration has also accused Iran of pursuing a nuclear weapons
program, though most intelligence analysts say the program has been
abandoned.

An attack on Iraq would fit the Bush administration's declared policy on
Iraq. Administration officials questioned directly about military action
against Iran routinely assert that "all options remain on the table".

Rockin' and a-reelin' Senators and the Bush administration denied the
resolution and terrorist declaration were preludes to an attack on Iran.
However, attacking Iran rarely seems far from some American leaders'
minds. Arizona senator and presumptive Republican presidential nominee
John McCain recast the classic Beach Boys tune Barbara Ann as "Bomb Iran".
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton promised "total obliteration" for
Iran if it attacked Israel.

The US and Iran have a long and troubled history, even without the
proposed air strike. US and British intelligence were behind attempts to
unseat prime minister Mohammed Mossadeq, who nationalized Britain's
Anglo-Iranian Petroleum Company, and returned Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi
to power in 1953. President Jimmy Carter's pressure on the Shah to improve
his dismal human-rights record and loosen political control helped the
1979 Islamic revolution unseat the Shah.

But the new government under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini condemned the US
as "the Great Satan" for its decades of support for the Shah and its
reluctant admission into the US of the fallen monarch for cancer
treatment. Students occupied the US Embassy in Teheran, holding 52
diplomats hostage for 444 days. Eight American commandos died in a failed
rescue mission in 1980. The US broke diplomatic relations with Iran during
the hostage holding and has yet to restore them. Iranian President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad's rhetoric often sounds lifted from the Khomeini era.

The source said the White House views the proposed air strike as a limited
action to punish Iran for its involvement in Iraq. The source, an
ambassador during the administration of president H W Bush, did not
provide details on the types of weapons to be used in the attack, nor on
the precise stage of planning at this time. It is not known whether the
White House has already consulted with allies about the air strike, or if
it plans to do so.

Sense in the senate Details provided by the administration raised alarm
bells on Capitol Hill, the source said. After receiving secret briefings
on the planned air strike, Senator Diane Feinstein, Democrat of
California, and Senator Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana, said they
would write a New York Times op-ed piece "within days", the source said
last week, to express their opposition. Feinstein is a member of the
Senate Intelligence Committee and Lugar is the ranking Republican on the
Foreign Relations Committee.

Senate offices were closed for the US Memorial Day holiday, so Feinstein
and Lugar were not available for comment.

Given their obligations to uphold the secrecy of classified information,
it is unlikely the senators would reveal the Bush administration's plan or
their knowledge of it. However, going public on the issue, even without
specifics, would likely create a public groundswell of criticism that
could induce the Bush administration reconsider its plan.

The proposed air strike on Iran would have huge implications for
geopolitics and for the ongoing US presidential campaign. The biggest
question, of course, is how would Iran respond?

Iran's options Iran could flex its muscles in any number of ways. It could
step up support for insurgents in Iraq and for its allies throughout the
Middle East. Iran aids both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Israel's
Occupied Territories. It is also widely suspected of assisting Taliban
rebels in Afghanistan.

Iran could also choose direct confrontation with the US in Iraq and/or
Afghanistan, with which Iran shares a long, porous border. Iran has a
fighting force of more than 500,000. Iran is also believed to have
missiles capable of reaching US allies in the Gulf region.

Iran could also declare a complete or selective oil embargo on US allies.
Iran is the second-largest oil exporter in the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries and fourth-largest overall. About 70% of its oil
exports go to Asia. The US has barred oil imports from Iran since 1995 and
restricts US companies from investing there.

China is Iran's biggest customer for oil, and Iran buys weapons from
China. Trade between the two countries hit US$20 billion last year and
continues to expand. China's reaction to an attack on Iran is also a
troubling unknown for the US.

Three for the money The Islamic world could also react strongly against a
US attack against a third predominantly Muslim nation. Pakistan, which
also shares a border with Iran, could face additional pressure from
Islamic parties to end its cooperation with the US to fight al-Qaeda and
hunt for Osama bin Laden. Turkey, another key ally, could be pushed
further off its secular base. American companies, diplomatic installations
and other US interests could face retaliation from governments or mobs in
Muslim-majority states from Indonesia to Morocco.

A US air strike on Iran would have seismic impact on the presidential race
at home, but it's difficult to determine where the pieces would fall.

At first glance, a military attack against Iran would seem to favor
McCain. The Arizona senator says the US is locked in battle across the
globe with radical Islamic extremists, and he believes Iran is one of
biggest instigators and supporters of the extremist tide. A strike on Iran
could rally American voters to back the war effort and vote for McCain.

On the other hand, an air strike on Iran could heighten public
disenchantment with Bush administration policy in the Middle East, leading
to support for the Democratic candidate, whoever it is.

But an air strike will provoke reactions far beyond US voting booths. That
would explain why two veteran senators, one Republican and one Democrat,
were reportedly so horrified at the prospect.

Former broadcast news producer Muhammad Cohen told America's story to the
world as a US diplomat and is author of Hong Kong On Air
(www.hongkongonair.com), a novel set during the 1997 handover about
television news, love, betrayal, high finance and cheap lingerie.

(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact
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