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Date: Thu, 9 Mar 2006 22:01:04 -0500
From: "U.S. Dept of State List Manager" <Listmgr@...>
Subject: United Nations Predicts Bird Flu in the Americas Within a Year

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Find the most current info at http://usinfo.state.gov/af/
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United Nations Predicts Bird Flu in the Americas Within a Year

(Influenza coordinator Nabarro urges high alert for veterinary services
worldwide) (640)
By Judy Aita, Washington File United Nations Correspondent

United Nations -- Bird flu is expected to cross the Atlantic Ocean and
reach the Americas within a year, a senior U.N. official said March 8.

Dr. David Nabarro, senior U.N. coordinator for avian and human
influenza, said that given the flight patterns of wild birds that have
been spreading avian influenza (bird flu) from Asia to Europe and Africa,
birds infected with the H5N1 virus could reach the Americas within the
next six to 12 months.

At a press conference at U.N. headquarters, Nabarro explained that birds
migrate each year from West Africa to the Arctic region and Alaska, where
they mingle with birds that will migrate six months later south from
Alaska into North and South America.

"We are obviously anticipating that there will be H5N1 in birds moving
back north up that West Africa/Atlantic flyway in the northern spring,
which is shortly," he said. "So we would then anticipate that one-half
year later there will be movement south into the Americas of birds that
have intermingled."

The migration, he reiterated, will occur within the next six to 12
months, or possibly earlier.

The immediate area of concern is West Africa, where the disease has been
found in Niger and Nigeria. But bird die-offs have occurred in other
African nations, and the U.N. expects confirmation of bird flu in other
countries soon, Nabarro said.

Further investigation will be needed to determine whether the virus is
being spread by migration of wild fowl or through trade.

Representatives of more than 40 sub-Saharan countries will meet in
Libreville, Gabon, later in March to discuss responses and how to organize
efforts with the World Health Organization (WHO), the U.N. Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Organization for Animal
Health.

"I just think every country in the world now needs to have its
veterinary services on high alert for H5N1,” Nabarro said, "to try to make
sure they don't get caught unawares and find that it gets into their
poultry populations without knowing."

The U.N. coordinator said he believes many countries in the Western
Hemisphere are preparing for a possible pandemic. Because H5N1
transmission involves migratory birds, Nabarro said, it is difficult to
predict where bird flu will appear next.

"It is like a fire,” he added. “We can get it under control if we use
the right strategies."

EVENTUAL HUMAN PANDEMIC LIKELY

Quoting WHO officials, Nabarro said there will be a human pandemic
sooner or later. It might be due to a mutation of the H5N1 virus to be
easily transmissible among people, or it might be due to another influenza
virus. Nations must behave as though it could start any time.

"We have got a virus that is capable of replicating inside humans,” he
said. "We have got a virus to which humans are not resistant. We have got
a virus about which we don't understand everything."

At this stage of the pandemic alert, Nabarro said, “we've got our luxury
of being able to get prepared. Once the pandemic does start with
human-to-human transmission, the time for preparing ends. All the
investment we've done in building relationships, setting up procedures,
working out how we're going to operate -- all that investment gets put to
the test."

On March 8, China confirmed the death of a 9-year-old girl, the 10th
known human death in that country from bird flu.

According to WHO, the human death toll now stands at 96 worldwide. Some
200 million birds have been killed to prevent the virus from spreading.

For additional information on the disease and efforts to combat it, see
Bird Flu (http://usinfo.state.gov/gi/global_issues/bird_flu.html).

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International
Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site:
http://usinfo.state.gov)
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SOURCE: WF-AFRICA Digest - 8 Mar 2006 to 9 Mar 2006 (#2006-44)