Journal of Viral Hepatitis
Volume 12 Issue 5 Page 543 - September 2005
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2893.2005.00588.x


Future trends of HCV-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma
under
the currently available treatments

V. Sypsa1, G. Touloumi1, G. V. Papatheodoridis2, N. C. Tassopoulos3, I.
Ketikoglou4, I. Vafiadis5, G. Hatzis6, D. Tsantoulas7, E. Akriviadis8,
S.
Koutsounas9 and A. Hatzakis1
Summary. The epidemic of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major
public
health issue. We conducted a comprehensive analysis to estimate future
HCV-related morbidity and mortality, using a model which is the first
to
take into account currently available treatments. We reconstructed the
incident infections per year in the past that progressed to chronic
hepatitis C (CHC) in Greece. Then, the natural history of the disease
was
simulated in subcohorts of newly infected subjects in the presence or
absence of treatment using yearly estimates of the number of treated
patients obtained from national databases. Annual estimates of the
incidence
and prevalence of CHC by fibrosis stage, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)
and
mortality were obtained up to 2030. The current proportion of naïve CHC
patients receiving treatment in Greece is 1.2% per year. Treatment of
1.210%
of naïve CHC patients per year would reduce the cumulative number of
incident cirrhosis and HCC cases from 2002 to 2030 by 10.839.4% and
12.839.8%, respectively and decrease the number of prevalent cirrhosis
and
HCC cases in 2030 by approximately 1748% compared with the number
estimated
under the assumption of no treatment. Approximately 17 cirrhosis cases
or
six HCC cases or 10 premature deaths would be prevented for every 100
treated patients. However, the prevalent cirrhotic/HCC cases because of
HCV
and HCV-related deaths would not plateau until 2030. Despite the
introduction of effective treatment, HCV-related morbidity and
mortality
will likely increase during the next 2030 years in Greece. Intensive
primary
prevention efforts coupled with increased access to the currently
available
treatments are necessary to control the chronic consequences of HCV
epidemic.




Sandra Tara Balduf (Ane)

Frontline Hepatitis Awareness

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