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Hunger hotspots of the future revealed
* 03 November 2008
* From New Scientist Print Edition. Subscribe and get 4 free issues
Where in sub-Saharan Africa will climate change hit hardest? When it comes to food supply, prospects for much of the centre and east of the region are looking grim. Reduced crop yields along with a rising population mean that Tanzania, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are likely to face serious shortages by 2030, according to a comprehensive new study.
A team from the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology in Dübendorf led by Junguo Liu assessed the impact of climate change by 2030 on the production of six major food crops in sub-Saharan Africa: cassava, maize, wheat, sorghum, rice and millet. Higher temperatures will make wheat wilt, with yields falling by up to 18 per cent. By contrast, millet benefits, with yields up by as much as 27 per cent (Global and Planetary Change, DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.09.007). Rice, maize, sorghum and cassava show little change.
By combining these assessments with projections for population and economic growth, the team then predicted how people in different countries would be affected. Tanzania, Mozambique and the DRC fared worst for food security. "They have the lowest economic growth, the fastest population growth or the lowest increase in calories from their crops," Liu says.
The report predicts that economic growth in Nigeria, Sudan and Angola will increase their purchasing power enough to allow them to buy their way out of hunger.
From issue 2680 of New Scientist magazine, 03 November 2008, page 7
* * *
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VF0-4TRCYGG-2&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=143e40ac5468bb0508627276e8141a87
Global and Planetary Change
Article in Press, Corrected Proof
doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.09.007 How to Cite or Link Using DOI (Opens New Window)
Copyright © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change
Junguo Liua, Corresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author, E-mail The Corresponding Author, Steffen Fritzb, C.F.A. van Wesenbeeckc, Michael Fuchsd, Liangzhi Youe, Michael Obersteinerb and Hong Yanga
aEawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland bInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria cCentre for World Food Studies, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands dBundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Stilleweg 2, 30655, D-Hannover, Germany eInternational Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002, USA
Received 17 March 2008;
accepted 19 September 2008.
Available online 21 October 2008.
References and further reading may be available for this article. To view references and further reading you must purchase this article.
Abstract
Hunger knows no boundaries or borders. While much research has focused on undernutrition on a national scale, this report evaluates it at subnational levels for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to pinpoint hotspots where the greatest challenges exist. Undernutrition is assessed with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes by investigating anthropometric data on weight and length of individuals. The impact of climate change on production of six major crops (cassava, maize, wheat, sorghum, rice and millet) is analyzed with a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model with the same spatial resolution. Future hotspots of hunger are projected in the context of the anticipated climate, social, economic, and bio-physical changes. The results show that some regions in northern and southwestern Nigeria, Sudan and Angola with a currently high number of people with undernutrition might be able to improve their food security situation mainly through increasing purchasing power. In the near future, regions located in Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, southwestern Niger, and Madagascar are likely to remain hotspots of food insecurity, while regions located in Tanzania, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo might face more serious undernutrition. It is likely that both the groups of regions will suffer from lower capacity of importing food as well as lower per capita calorie availability, while the latter group will probably have sharper reduction in per capita calorie availability. Special attention must be paid to the hotspot areas in order to meet the hunger alleviation goals in SSA.
Hunger hotspots of the future revealed
* 03 November 2008
* From New Scientist Print Edition. Subscribe and get 4 free issues
Where in sub-Saharan Africa will climate change hit hardest? When it comes to food supply, prospects for much of the centre and east of the region are looking grim. Reduced crop yields along with a rising population mean that Tanzania, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are likely to face serious shortages by 2030, according to a comprehensive new study.
A team from the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology in Dübendorf led by Junguo Liu assessed the impact of climate change by 2030 on the production of six major food crops in sub-Saharan Africa: cassava, maize, wheat, sorghum, rice and millet. Higher temperatures will make wheat wilt, with yields falling by up to 18 per cent. By contrast, millet benefits, with yields up by as much as 27 per cent (Global and Planetary Change, DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.09.007). Rice, maize, sorghum and cassava show little change.
By combining these assessments with projections for population and economic growth, the team then predicted how people in different countries would be affected. Tanzania, Mozambique and the DRC fared worst for food security. "They have the lowest economic growth, the fastest population growth or the lowest increase in calories from their crops," Liu says.
The report predicts that economic growth in Nigeria, Sudan and Angola will increase their purchasing power enough to allow them to buy their way out of hunger.
From issue 2680 of New Scientist magazine, 03 November 2008, page 7
* * *
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VF0-4TRCYGG-2&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=143e40ac5468bb0508627276e8141a87
Global and Planetary Change
Article in Press, Corrected Proof
doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.09.007 How to Cite or Link Using DOI (Opens New Window)
Copyright © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change
Junguo Liua, Corresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author, E-mail The Corresponding Author, Steffen Fritzb, C.F.A. van Wesenbeeckc, Michael Fuchsd, Liangzhi Youe, Michael Obersteinerb and Hong Yanga
aEawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland bInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria cCentre for World Food Studies, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands dBundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Stilleweg 2, 30655, D-Hannover, Germany eInternational Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002, USA
Received 17 March 2008;
accepted 19 September 2008.
Available online 21 October 2008.
References and further reading may be available for this article. To view references and further reading you must purchase this article.
Abstract
Hunger knows no boundaries or borders. While much research has focused on undernutrition on a national scale, this report evaluates it at subnational levels for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to pinpoint hotspots where the greatest challenges exist. Undernutrition is assessed with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes by investigating anthropometric data on weight and length of individuals. The impact of climate change on production of six major crops (cassava, maize, wheat, sorghum, rice and millet) is analyzed with a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model with the same spatial resolution. Future hotspots of hunger are projected in the context of the anticipated climate, social, economic, and bio-physical changes. The results show that some regions in northern and southwestern Nigeria, Sudan and Angola with a currently high number of people with undernutrition might be able to improve their food security situation mainly through increasing purchasing power. In the near future, regions located in Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, southwestern Niger, and Madagascar are likely to remain hotspots of food insecurity, while regions located in Tanzania, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo might face more serious undernutrition. It is likely that both the groups of regions will suffer from lower capacity of importing food as well as lower per capita calorie availability, while the latter group will probably have sharper reduction in per capita calorie availability. Special attention must be paid to the hotspot areas in order to meet the hunger alleviation goals in SSA.
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