It is really amazing that while there are many performance indicator on the
stock market analysis, there's hardly any for the roulette system. Here I
will show you one of my own roulette theoretical analysis for any simplified
systems. First I must define to you what a simplified system is. It is one
which stops upon a profit win, for example the Martingale progression. It is
not that difficult to follow so I suggest you go through this tutorial
because it will give you a new light to understanding the strength of a
system.

SI = Survival Index
AVG = Average Gain
TBR = Session Bankroll
DRF = Doubling Recovery Factor
KPI = Key Performace Indicator

SI is the accumulative probability of a hit over a series of spins. On a
single spin, an even bet has a 18/37 = 0.486 chance of hitting. For X number
of spins, your chance of getting a hit on that even bet is 18/37 multiply by
X. On an 8 step Martingale, the SI = 8 x (18/37) = 3.892. Therefore the
higher the SI for a system, the better the probability for a hit within the
series of progression.

AVG is the sum of unit gain on all the steps divide by the number of steps.
Again based on the 8 step Martingale using 1 unit starting bet, AVG =
(1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1)/8 = 1. This means that overall you make a 1 unit gain on
the average for all your winning session. This excludes those losing
sessions.

TBR is the maximum bankroll required to win a session. In the case of our
Martingale example it is 1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128=255

DRF is an indicator to show how many wins are needed to make back the
original capital. In other words, how fast we can double our TBR. The
formula is DRF = TBR/AVG. In the 8-step M, the DRF = 255/1 = 255.

KPI shows the strength of a system by combining all the above. KPI is
directly proportional to the total session bankroll. So the lower the KPI
figure the better the system is. The formula is either KPI = TBR/(SI * AVG)
or KPI = DRF/SI. For the 8 step Martingale, KPI = 255/3.892 = 65.52. This
arbitrary figure doesn't mean much unless you can compare it with another
system.

So let's compare it with Rambler's 18 step "Sure Win" system with a session
bankroll of 488. Here are his system parameters:
SI = ((18/37)^2)*18 = 4.260
AVG = 53/18 = 2.944
TBR = 488
DRF = 488/2.944 = 165.76 sessions
KPI = 165.76/4.26 = 38.905

How about comparing with a 9-step Martingale?
SI = (18/37)*9 = 4.3783
AVG = 1
TBR = 511 (More than Sure Win)
DRF = 511/1 = 511 sessions
KPI = 511/4.3783 = 116.71

Here it shows that even though we use a larger bankroll, it fared worst
compared to the 8 step-M or Sure Win!

You can gather a wealth of information by studying these little formulas.
When you gamble using any progression, pay very close attention to the SI.
In the last two examples the SI=4 (approx), this means that you have four
times the confidence of an expected hit during their entire progression.

What can make you lose is when you have no luck. In other words, a series of
bad runs (or very bad luck) can override even the highest SI. But between
any two systems, the higher SI will survive "longer" than the one with a
lower SI. Or you also look at it in another way by saying that the lower SI
system will fail more frequently in relative terms.

Notice that the SI & TBR for the last two systems are almost normalized
because their values are quite the same. This allows us to make an
apple-to-apple comparison between them (given the same chance of a hit as
well as using the equivalent bankroll). Therefore one can conclude that if
you have around $500 in your pocket, you will be better off playing "Sure
Win" instead of the 9-step M as the KPI shows more strength on Rambler's
system. Also the DRF points to you that it's quicker to recover than the
Martingale upon a loss.

So the KPI shows you the big picture because it factors in the total
bankroll as well as the average unit gain per win. When it comes to
designing a powerful system, you will need to bring down the KPI value while
maximising the SI.

Remember that you cannot use this formula on all roulette systems because
some of them uses complex progression and/or money management. At least now
I've shown you how to identify a better system without even playing it. In
the end winning or losing will still depend on your own luck.

MYaz


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