As an admirer, not a practitioner of SUHB, some thoughts on Jacqui's questions
have occurred to me.

In reverse order, in re qualitative approaches only: although I am definitely
not "up to speed" on cutting edge thinking beyond complexity theory, I am
hopeful that some one, some day will be able to put together an idea that will
clearly, that is, clearly for me and for most of us, show how to transcend
current technical understanding; also...I recall the advances in thinking about
SUHB that have swirled around the early days of quantitative work in SUHB, and
so would be reluctant to take an "either/or" position on "correct" modes of
inquiry. It seems to me that our current line of dialogue, initiated on the ls
by Bear, can bring some new thinking to the meanings we all seek, meanings that
are signaled by the terms predictable/probable but that are probably obscured by
those very terms.

As for the second question...I appreciate the jolt Jacqui has tossed our way,
with the unabashedly hopelessly dead-end characterization of the problem we are
addressing in this thread. This jolt may be an early warning of a break-through
in thinking! Exciting!

Savina Schoenhofer
----- Original Message -----
From: Jacqueline Fawcett
To: Martha_E_Rogers@yahoogroups.com ; Martha_E_Rogers@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, December 12, 2003 5:07 AM
Subject: RE: [Martha_E_Rogers] Probabilistic v Unpredictability


Colleagues,

Based on the dialogue following my keynote address at the Savannah SRS
Conference in November, my understanding is that we are exploring the
appropriateness of the use of the terms, unpredictable and probabilistic.
Martha left us with unpredictable but some of us wonder what the meaning of that
term is for SUHB based research.

For example, does unpredictable permit the use of any inferential statistical
tests?

Would SUHB be best served by adopting a qualitatively oriented research
approach that would not require the use of any inferential statistics?

Jacqui

Jacqueline Fawcett


-----Original Message-----
From: kelly rutherford [mailto:kdrn@...]
Sent: Thu 12/11/2003 4:12 PM
To: Martha_E_Rogers@yahoogroups.com
Cc:
Subject: Re: [Martha_E_Rogers] Probabilistic v Unpredictability



OK, this backwoods brother will bite.

I tend to agree with Brother Bear's assessment about use of the term
unpredictable. The term does seem to have multi-conceptual use. As an excuse
to not "Scientifically" explore a pattern or phenomenon I would substitute the
concept of "Objectively Unmeasurable". When something cannot be reduced to a
number in an equation or a figure on a graph it is often deemed unworthy of
"Proper Scientific Research". I feel the key word in the last sentence is
"reduce", a concept among Unitary Scientist often considered "Sin" or "Fightin'
Words".

I'm not sure where this discussion began Bear, but it reminds me of
defending my Masters thesis against a panel of die hard, femanist, objective,
reductionists. Oops, my wife will kill me for that one, but it was a traumatic
experience. One lone, younger, male nurse practioner student against all those
old........ I digress. They are all respected friends and know how I like to
tease them about their horror when I presented a Unitary based position to my
arguments that none were prepared to discuss. I passed and survived well for
the experience. Back on topic. When arguments about statistical concepts
errupt we usually end up trying to defend the Unitary perspective. I took the
opposite approach and presented my position from the standpoint that they were
using the out-dated concepts of a paternalistic system that bases worth on
objective measurement with the admitted inability to measure significant ph!
enomena. Without being condescending I presented an integrated approach
that allowed acknowledgment of the unmeasurable and value to all pattern
manifestations, measureable and unmeasurable. A few of you may have seen my
model back in 1999? at convention.

So, I guess my question would be this. With this discussion are we
defending the Unitary position or exploring the use of statistical concept
within the SUHB?


Any takers?

GURU


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