Hi all,

We have hit the entirely arbitrary and capricious magical number of 30
members.

During our meeting in Savannah we spent a few minutes following
Jacqui's excellent keynote, discussing issues of our language and how
it relates to other scientific enterprises. As a statistician and a
probabilist I have always felt uncomfortable with the use of the terms
'unpredictable' and 'unpredictability'. My discomfort has several
facets that will emerge in the future. However, to get the ball
rolling it occurred to me that it would be appropriate if some of the
people far better imbued with knowledge about Martha's use of these
terms and her transition in thinking from probabilistic to
unpredictable would share their knowledge as a summary of the
background.

I have some material i am putting together from a statistical and
probability theory perspective but want a context for that material in
terms of a summary of martha's and current theorists' positions.

Then I would really like it if everyone would just jump in and speak
their mind - lurkers and newbies like myself especially. It has been a
long time since the basic issues of language in the suhb have been
discussed in depth and we are all well aware that a major issue that
skeptics have used in the past to engage in their unreasoned bashing
of our work has been the intentional misinterpretation of language and
ideas such as the HEF. However, their misinterpretations have garnered
a fair amount of support and if nothing else, that may be sufficient
reason to consider how our language may present problems that may be
non-existent if we either better define the manner in which our
terminology is applied or change certain issues to better communicate
with other disciplines.

As an incentive let me just suggest that unpredictable conjures up two
major issues for me: First, is that we do not know, with certainty,
what the outcome of any situation may be. A human being with an
alcohol use problem shows up at detox for the 100th time seeking
sobriety. Will this time result in a complete cessation of alcohol use
or will the human being with the alcohol use problem return to old
patterns? We cannot be certain that it will/won't be a magical
experience but if we had to decide between providing service to this
person vs a person on their first admission we might be derelict if we
selected them and denied service to someone with a higher likelihood
of success.

The second way that I have seen 'unpredictable' used seems to be as a
justification for either not exploring or not studying phenomena in a
scientific manner. The argument here apparently being that
unpredictability as a basic tenet justifies exclusion of traditional
scientific (read 'randomized clinical trials') methods in favor of
other approaches. This use troubles me greatly but it may be that I am
over-reacting.

So, if some people will address the history and current status I will
add my two cents on the way probabilists, philosophers, and
statisticians view probability, predictability, and unpredictability,
and everyone can contribute their two cents...

Maybe if we can get a spirited discussion going we will have some
archived material that will be available for the foreseeable future
and for newcomers or which might find its way into a piece for visions
or some other venue...

Just one thought - sometimes it is tempting to cite references - but
let's try to avoid that as many people may not have access to such
sources as was the case when I was a BSN student. Listservers are
great places to just dialogue. However, it is also okay to copy and
paste your own or other's electronic pieces in an email as long as it
is not done excessively and original sources are cited and credited.
Another thing that listservers are great for is just shooting from the
hip and making mistakes. I certainly intend to make a fair share of
such blunders myself and encourage others to do the same. Sometimes we
learn far more from our own and others mistakes than we learn from our
best, most polished, and most consistent work...

bear