Dear Colleage,

According to our information for many people who is concern HIV/AIDS estimation
projection. This year the Bureau of AIDS, TB and STIs at Ministry Public
Health Thailand has to provide for Policy Analysis Using the Asian Epidemic
Model during July 26-30, 2004, in Bangkok, Thailand, which we have the objective
to purpose as this a details following.

National:

Currently, HIV/AIDS is a big problem destroyed many things of infrastructure in
the other countries are in the world, which they had effected to the structure
of demographic impact, economic and social development too. We have deeply to
considerate in the context of social stigma culture rather than theirs are
complication. Which, we don’t know a big gaps for each country. Especially,
most of HIV/AIDS were spread in the Asian countries. They are large problems
and urgent for solution in risk behaviors of HIV/AIDS situation.

The projections are estimate importantly a tools of method that is important and
necessary to be find out the numbers size of HIV/AIDS problems for serves a
strategies planning an alleviate to control and prevention HIV/AIDS problems to
understand situation now.

Therefore, the mechanism technology transformation is developing the ideological
that is important to be done. Furthermore, it will be useful to support a
capacity building for the other countries such as for sharing professional
expert, experience, and supporting a skill building to them. They can use
perspective an analysis model correctly. This course will be useful for them.

They can take the advantages, benefit and apply in theirs countries such as
Thailand, Laos, US/Canada/ Cambodia, Vietnam, China, Myanmar, Japan, India,
Indonesia, and etc.

If you interested in this course. Could you response me to dateline on July 10,
2004. Hope you will be attend. Thank you

kittaya
E-mail: kittaya@...
________________

Policy Analysis Using the Asian Epidemic Model
July 26-30, 2004, Bangkok, Thailand

Jointly sponsored by: AIDS Cluster, Bureau of AIDS TB and STIs, Thai Ministry of
Public Health and the East-West Center, Hawaii Universites, and the Thai Red
Cross Society Collaboration

Monday July 26st, 2004 – An introduction to modeling and estimation

9:15am – Introduction and Welcome to the Workshop (Tim Brown)
Workshop Objectives
Coordinator and Participant Self-Introductions

9:45am – An Overview of Estimation and Projection (Tim Brown)
Why Estimate and Project?
History and Overview of Existing Tools and Their Application in
Asia. The Estimation and Projection Process – Who and How?

12:00pm – Lunch

Extracting data from existing sources

2:00am – Data Requirements – Matching up Estimation/Projection &
NationalProgram Needs (Tim Brown)
Spreadsheets and EPP – Epi trends and population sizes
AEM – Epi, size and behavioral trends in key populations)

4:00pm – The integrated analysis method – Sources & Approaches
(Tim Brown)
Sources and data quality issues
Example – Thai Epi-Behavioral Analysis (UNAIDS)

Tuesday July 27, 2004 – An introduction to the Asian Epidemic Model

9:00am – Exercise 1 on trend extraction (Participants)
Extracting epi and behavioral trends from the Bucen database

12:00pm – Lunch

1:00pm – Overall Philosophy of the AEM (Tim Brown)
What it models – the structure of Asian epidemics

3:00pm – The structure of the Asian Epidemic Model (Wiwat Peerapatanapokin)
4:00am – Demonstration of the Asian Epidemic Model (Wiwat
Peerapatanapokin)

Wednesday July 28rd, 2004 morning – What AEM gives us - Outputs
9:00am – Epidemiological data inputs of the AEM (Wiwat
Peerapatanapokin)

9:45am – Behavioral data inputs of the AEM (Wiwat Peerapatanapokin/Tim Brown)
Trends in key behaviors and sizes of populations
Detailed explanation of input variables and trends

10:30am Coffee

11:00am – Making adjustments to data (Wiwat Peerapatanapokin + Participants)
Limitations in data sources – what you think you see is NOT what you get
Making adjustments – ANC data, military conscripts, the ANC Calculator

12:00pm Lunch

1:00pm – Exercise 2- Using the ANC Calculator & estimating coital
frequency
2:00pm – Step-by-step run through a projection (Wiwat Peerapatanapokin)
Linking STD trends and condom use Considerations on the fitting parameters

2:30pm Coffee

3:00pm – Exercise 3 – Modifying a Projection: Determining Effects of
Implementation Speed

Thursday July 29th, 2004 - Using the AEM for policy

9:00am – Validating outputs – cross-checks and projection validity
(Tim Brown)
9:45am – Scenario Analysis Using the AEM– Thailand Example (Tim Brown)
Data collection, Working Group and agreement on baseline and
scenarios
The Thai national epidemic – exploring the future

10:30am – Coffee
11:00am – Example – Relationships of IDU and sex work epidemics in
Asia
12:00pm – Lunch
1:00pm - Translating programmatic inputs into behavioral trends (Tim
Brown) How to make reasonable assumptions: global experience in what’s
achievable Scenarios for the Future of HIV in Asia

2:30pm – Coffee Break

3:00pm – Policy analysis – Examples of tools and approaches
Economic estimates in Thailand, children’s impacts with Spectrum.
July 30th Friday –Policy analyses and their validation

9:00am – Exercise 4 – defining a scenario with policy relevance
(Participants)Starting from Thai no-intervention baseline, define a new scenario
on an issue of Policy relevance, implement it, and do whatever costing,
comparisons, etc. might be necessary e.g., relative effectiveness of condom
promotion vs. partner reduction e.g. putting all resources into PMTCT
E.g., impact of IDU or MSM interventions

10:30pm Coffee
11:00am – continue working on scenario
12:00pm – Lunch
2:00pm Show and Tell
3:00pm – Wrap-up and Closing