Historic group and membership count data can be found in two primary
sources of record. The first is a May 1953 Grapevine article titled
"How Many AAs." It offers estimates of worldwide membership counts
from 1935 thru 1953. There are many caveats in the Grapevine article
explaining both the derivation of the numbers and their
interpretation. Group and membership count data began to be reported
in the final reports of the General Service Conferences from 1954 on.
The counts apply to the prior year of the Conference report and are
typically dated as of January 1 of the current year. In past years the
data were dated as of April of the current year which further
complicates year-by-year comparisons. The count data are also reported
in the Grapevine and Box 459. These data are dependent on groups
submitting new group information forms and group information change
forms to their respective General Service Offices. The US/Canada GSO
consolidates this information for annual reporting to the Conference
and Fellowship.

The data reported in the May 1953 Grapevine article and Conference
reports must be interpreted very carefully, very skeptically and in
proper context. Group counts include only those groups asking the GSOs
to be listed (thousands do not). Groups may or may not report
membership estimates or update estimates over time. Members can be
counted in multiple group estimates and the composition of the numbers
has changed at various points in time from "reported" to "estimated."
All too often these data are interpreted as being precise and they are
not - they are "best guesstimates." Between the period of 1955 to
1981, GSO included a statement in the reported counts giving an
"estimated" count of membership which was typically 3 to 4 times
higher than the so-called "reported" numbers. No information is
provided on where these "estimates" came from. Their validity and
precision appear to be dubious and I'd caution against taking them too
literally. GSO abandoned the practice of offering "estimates" from
1982 on. Also from the period of 1951 to 1984 group and membership
counts were reported for Hospitals. GSO stopped reporting this
category of counts as of 1985.

For purposes of conducting a census, the definition of what is an AA
Group should be pretty straightforward. But you'd be surprised by how
much of an issue it was in the past for the Conference to come up with
a definition of what is an AA Group that could be put into AA
literature. What first gave rise to this was the AA Directory (it's
basically a phone book that lists all the groups in a certain part of
the country/world). In the 1960s complications arose over what groups
and count data to list in the directory because of the emergence of
groups that became involved with problems other than alcohol and
conducted so-called "alcohol and pill" meetings. There were also
groups that were men only, women only, physicians only, lawyers only,
etc., etc. On top of that, there were groups that were essentially
merging with Al-Anon and conducting so-called "Family" or "Family
After" meetings. The winnowing of the group data removed "alcohol and
pill" and "Family" meetings" among others.

For a period of time AA literature (specifically "The AA Group"
pamphlet) suggested subdividing AA into the categories of "groups,"
"meetings" and "gatherings." If a group was in line with Tradition 3
(long form) then it got called a "group." If it went off into other
areas it was labeled a "meeting" and not counted as a group. And if it
was really out in left field it was called a "gathering." Needless to
say, many AA members were not very enthusiastic about those types of
classifications and wanted more clarity in the definition of what an
AA group is. This gave rise to something called the "6-point
definition of an AA group." The 6-point definition was replaced by a
1990 decision of the General Service Conference that defined an AA
group with the long form of Traditions 3 and 5. Then in 1991 the
Conference approved a definition that consists of the long form of
Tradition 3 and "Warranty 6" of Article 12 of the Permanent Conference
Charter (which is also a part of Concept 12).

From 1992 to 1994, overseas count estimates were revised and a major
revision occurred in the US/Canada GSO's counting methods and record
system. The number of groups reported no longer included those
described as "meetings" which chose not to be considered "groups."
Such "meetings" (typically special interest) are included in prior
year's data and inflate that data. The 1992-1994 revisions can
erroneously be interpreted as a steep drop from 1993 to 1994
membership and groups when, in fact, it simply reflects a procedural
change in counting methods. The doom and gloom crowd of AA often
erroneously refer to these counts as a drop in AA membership (which
might give a hint as to the inadequacy of the research methods that
sustain their negativity).

AA is in more than 180 countries (with 57 autonomous GSOs overseas).
Each year, the US/Canada GSO attempts to contact overseas GSOs and
groups requesting to be listed in their records. From the beginning,
the count numbers are at best, "fuzzy" and likely understated and do
need to be interpreted prudently to avoid drawing erroneous
conclusions. GSO cautions that the information they report "does not
represent an actual count of those who consider themselves AA
members." The autonomous and anonymous characteristics of AA groups
make the derivation of accurate and complete counts a difficult matter
to say the least. The data reported are not an accurate measure of a
specific year's increase or decrease. However, trends over the decades
are indicative (but not exact) of AA groups reaching more places and
more AA members achieving recovery.

The 2006 final Conference report offered an estimate of 1,068,761
members for the US, 110,449 members for Canada, 702,769 members
overseas and 65,843 members in prison groups for a total of 1,947,662
worldwide. Because of the thousands of groups that do not register
with GSO and/or update their membership estimates, my sense would be
that the US numbers reported by GSO are likely understated rather than
overstated.

To help put some things in a different perspective regarding counts, a
2006 issue (number 16) of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health
(NSDUH) report carries an article titled "Alcohol Dependence or Abuse:
2002, 2003 and 2004." One of its major findings is that "Among persons
aged 12 or older, 7.6 percent (18.2 million) met the criteria for
alcohol dependence or abuse in the past year." Even though AA may have
a worldwide membership "guesstimated" at almost 2 million, in the
United States alone there are over 18 million persons that would
benefit from hearing the message of recovery that AA carries. There
appears to be much work left to do. That 18+ million number would
probably be a far more useful one to cite at AA functions.

Cheers
Arthur

-----Original Message-----
From: AAHistoryLovers@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:AAHistoryLovers@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of mbrandfssr
Sent: Monday, September 25, 2006 7:27 AM
To: AAHistoryLovers@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [AAHistoryLovers] Counting Members 1993 vs 2006


I saw this on AA History Buffs

"GSO changed the way membership counts were calculated after 1993."

Can anyone offer insight into the change? I was at an AA function
last month where a guy made slight reference to this and claimed our
membership is probably more like 600,000-700,000 in the US








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