One hand-drawn graph in a paper summarizing the 1977 through 1989 Trennial
Surveys has been misread by many people. The myth of a 95% drop-out in the
first year comes because it reported the membership length of people who
were in their first ever year of Alcoholics Anonymous. The x-axis scale
of the graph was the percentage who had been coming for any given number
of months, it was not the retention percentage.

http://health.groups.yahoo.com/group/AAHistoryLovers/message/2379

My AAHistoryLovers Post 2379 (with added comments by moderator Glenn C)
presents the proper reading of the graph. The retention from any month to any
other is the ratio of the number of members found. For every 100 people who
were in their first year, 19 were in their first month and 5 were in their
twelfth.
5 / 19 = 0.26 So 26% remain at the end of their first year. Newcomers often
are told, "Try A.A. for three months and decide if you are an alcoholic." About
half leave during that "test drive." The Survey found 9 in their fourth month.
5 / 9 = 0.56 So 56% of those staying beyond three months finish the year
of their first ever A.A. experience.

"If anyone who is showing inability to control his drinking can do the
right-about-face and drink like a gentleman, our hats are off to him." (BB p.31)
I want to avoid starting the "real alcoholic" debate again but that is true.
Alcoholism is a self-diagnosed malady. A.A.'s shared experience can help
a visitor decide for himself if he is an alcoholic. As they say, "Yet." :-)
Although some in A.A. want to "save" everyone who walks in the door, there
really are drinkers who don't need Alcoholics Anonymous at their first visit.
[Sponsors are free to tell their sponsees, "This doesn't apply to you."] :-)

There are many reasons someone might not stay for their first full year.
It isn't up to us to decide if their reason is or is not valid.
* Not alcoholic
* Not "alcoholic enough"
* "Not ready"
* Denial
* More an addict than an alcoholic
* Discouraged by false claims like 95% Dropout Myth
* Life's other pressures
* Travel distance
* Don't "want what we have" by their perception
* Never sober enough to hear the message
* Wrong group for them
* Other psychological problems
* Try recovery by some other means
* Move
* Die (cause is irrelevant)
[Sponsors are free to tell their sponsees, "These don't apply to you either."]
:-)
_____________________
Tom E
Wappingers Falls, NY

-------------- Original message ----------------------
From: Billy-Bob <backtobasicsbillybob@...>
> ... According to some of AA's own triennnial surveys a good 95 percent
> seem to drop out during the first year. That means that about 5 percent
> "really try". Which means that if 50% get it right away figure and 75%
> get it eventually figures hold true, it means that after all is said and
> done that 75% of 5% achieve a lasting sobriety.
>
> Sincerely, Billy-Bob